Bitcoin prices are making a rapid recovery now resting at $6,850 up from lows of $3,930 in February 2019. That rise in value in less than three months has set the market ablaze with enthusiasm, with many pundits claiming that BTC was set for another $20,000 bull run. Will bitcoin recover?
Tech analyst Kevin Dennean of UBS however, has tried to try putting a damper on these high spirits, saying that it would take BTC at least two decades to enjoy such a high value in prices again.
Kevin mentioned previous asset bubbles and their trajectories, comparing BTC’s price behavior to that of the Dow Jones during the Great Depression as well the Nikkei’s in 1989. Also, he compared BTC’s fate to that suffered by the Dotcom bubble as well as the 2008 oil crisis. Kevin went as far as recalling the recent Chinese stock market collapse and equating all this financial doom and gloom to BTC’s final fate.
“The argument here is that Bitcoin has gone through its bubble phase and is ready to rise phoenix-like from the ashes just as other assets and indices did in the past,” Kevin said adding that, “We’re struck by how long it took other asset bubbles to recover their peak levels (as long as 22 years for the Dow Jones Industrials) and how pedestrian the annualized returns from trough to the recovery often are. So, maybe crypto bull contingents should consider what happens after the bubble, not every bubble that bursts recover the old highs.”
UBS has never been particularly friendly to BTC. In fact, Paul Donovan, the firm’s Global Wealth Management head has rubbished Bitcoin in the past.
“I come to bury Bitcoin, not to praise it… “These things were never going to be currencies. They’re not going to be currencies at any point in the future,” Donovan once said on CNBC’s show “Fast Money.”
Well, Bitcoin is Up With Targets at $8,500
Bitcoin recovery enthusiasts have over the past decade grown accustomed to the doom and gloom bleating of most elite legacy financial institutors. They have seen the king of crypto rise from a meager $31 in its first bubble in July 2011; to its highest value of $19,783 in December 2017 bubble. This group has bravely weathered the crypto winter and the altcoin rise and subsequent menace too.
Like ultra Bitcoin bull, John McAfee was quick to remind Dennean, Bitcoin really is not effing stock! The paradigms that work for those assets cannot be applied to crypto. Crypto is an entirely new ball game, and BTC has not been in a depression. It actually arose from the financial miasma of the 2008 bank collapse, thriving as the economy went on recovery.
So, Bitcoin unlike indices such as the S&P 500 or the Dow Jones is ultra volatile by nature with unique parabolic behaviors due to its comparably young age. Also, if the internet bubble burst is anything to go by, it really did not take it 22 years of recovery as intimated by Dennean.
Bitcoin’s adoption as the world’s leading digital currency is still, and massive markets are opening to it every other day globally. Most of its moves are therefore exaggerated in short spans. If the crypto adoption movement matches that of the internet, while public debt necessitated by governments keeps rising, it is inevitable that more and more people will turn to crypto use.
In conclusion, in time Bitcoin (BTC) will witness a six-figure value, and this could happen in the next few years rather than decades. The increasingly growing attention Bitcoin is getting from open-minded financial institutions like Fidelity should be a pointer to the fact that something big’s afoot with Bitcoin. Now your know will bitcoin recover or no.